The Canadian-born Workforce is Shrinking and the Demand for Labour is Growing
Challenge
Across Canada, throughout North America and around the world, employers face a changing labour pool.
- Baby boomers are retiring and birth rates are falling.
- Not enough skilled people are graduating to fill certain positions.
- The Canadian talent pool is shifting to reflect a diverse demographic mix.
- According to the Canada Labour and Business Centre, labour force growth will drop below 1% between 2005 and 2009; by 2015 it will have decreased to below 0.5%.
- According to a recent Conference Board of Canada report it is estimated that by 2025, Canada will face a skilled labour force deficit of 1.2 million people.1 (don't post: Conference Board of Canada, The Skills Factor in Productivity and Competitiveness: How Canada's Sector Councils are Helping Address the Skills and Labour Needs of Employers, 2005, p. 8.)
- Additionally, a number of employment sectors and occupational categories are expected to grow in the near future, emphasizing the approaching demand for skilled employment in a range of industries, from sales/service, trades and business to science, manufacturing and healthcare.
It is also important to recognize that immigrants are expected to account for all net labour force growth by 2011, and for all net population growth by 2031.
The following chart reflects the high growth that is projected to occur in several occupational categories. These numbers are a snapshot of the Greater Toronto Area and mirror Canada-wide trends.
| National Occupational Category |
GTA Occupational Size 2000 |
GTA Occupational Size Projected to 2010 |
Projected Growth in Demand 2000-2010 |
| Sales & Service |
746,400 |
881,800 |
135,400 |
| Business/Finance/Administration |
664,000 |
785,500 |
121,500 |
| Social Service/Government/Education |
195,100 |
228,900 |
33,800 |
| Trades/Transp./Equip. Operators |
335,300 |
364,500 |
29,200 |
| Natural & Applied Sciences |
168,200 |
193,700 |
25,500 |
| Health |
125,200 |
146,100 |
20,900 |
| Art/Culture/Recreation/Sport |
96,700 |
111,500 |
14,800 |
| Processing/Manufacturing |
258,800 |
271,000 |
12,200 |
| Primary Industries |
25,700 |
032,500 |
6,800 |
Source: Immigration, Labour Force & Age Structure of the Population, HRDC 1999
Opportunity
By identifying future skill requirements and planning for the new face of work, employers will be better able to source, screen, select, and invest in the skilled immigrants who will make up the labour shortfall.
