Study: Projected Trends to 2031 For The Canadian Labour Force

The Daily (Statistics Canada)

Using a range of projection scenarios, the labour force is projected to grow to between 20.5 million and 22.5 million by 2031, according to Statistics Canada. In 2010, the labour force numbered about 18.5 million.

All scenarios suggest a slowdown in the rate of growth in the labour force, primarily because of the retirement of baby boomers. The overall participation rate, that is, the percentage of the total population aged 15 and over that is in the labour force, is also projected to decline.

The projections also suggest that, if recent trends continue, the labour force will become older and increasingly ethnoculturally diverse. Close to one person out of four in the labour force could be aged 55 or over by 2021. There would also be higher proportions of foreign-born people and people belonging to a visible minority group (as defined by the Employment Equity Act) in the labour force.

By 2031, roughly one in every three people in the labour force could be foreign born. Between 1991 and 2006, the percentage of foreign-born people in the labour force rose from 18.5 per cent to 21.2 per cent. If recent immigration levels were to continue, that proportion is projected to reach almost 33 per cent in 2031, according to most scenarios.

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